Research

Pre-Election Survey 2026

November 2, 2026

On October 27, one week before the midterm elections, Galvanize Action asked ideologically moderate women questions about how they planned to vote, which factors impact that vote choice, where they’re getting information about civic life, and how they’re feeling about their role in our democracy.

QUESTION #1 | VOTE CHOICE
Which of the following best describes your plan to vote in the 2026 Congressional midterm elections?

Bar chart of survey responses on 2026 midterm voting plans. The Democratic candidate (36%) leads the Republican candidate (31%). Smaller shares are undecided (17%), not planning to vote (14%), or planning to vote for another candidate (2%).

Which of the following best describes your plan to vote in the 2026 Congressional midterm elections?
I plan to vote for the Democrat candidate	36%
I plan to vote for the Republican candidate	31%
I plan to vote for another candidate	2%
I plan to vote, but I’m not sure yet how I’ll vote	17%
I do not plan to vote	14%

More women surveyed say they plan to vote for the Democratic candidate (36%) than the Republican candidate (31%), while 17% say they plan to vote but aren’t sure yet, and 14% say they do not plan to vote at all.

Line chart of survey responses on 2026 midterm voting plans, January to October. Plans to vote Democrat stay highest throughout, ending at 37%. Plans to vote Republican rise from 26% to 32%. Undecided voters fall from 26% to 17%. Those not planning to vote range from 11% to 19%, ending at 14%. — Please note: The “another candidate” option was excluded from the October data represented in this visual since it was not an option in the surveys from January to September. Additionally, each survey draws from a different sample of moderate white women.

Since January, the Democrat-Republican margin has narrowed from 10 points early in the year (36%-26%) to 5 points in October. The amount of undecided voters has decreased steadily since the beginning of the year, from 26% in January to 17% in October, its lowest point so far.

QUESTION #2 | ECONOMIC CONCERNS
When it comes to your personal financial situation, how concerned are you about each of the following?

Stacked bar chart of concern about four personal costs. Most people are very concerned about each: food and groceries (66%), gasoline and diesel (62%), healthcare (55%), and utilities (53%). Few say they are not at all concerned.

When it comes to your personal financial situation, how concerned are you about each of the following?
	Not at all concerned	Not too concerned	Somewhat concerned	Very concerned
The cost of gasoline and diesel	4%	9%	26%	62%
The cost of food and groceries	1%	9%	24%	66%
The cost of healthcare	4%	11%	30%	55%
The cost of utilities, such as electricity, natural gas, and water	3%	10%	35%	53%

Across all four categories, the majority of respondents report being somewhat or very concerned. This concern is led by the cost of food and groceries (90% combined, 66% very concerned) and the cost of gasoline and diesel (88% combined, 62% very concerned). Healthcare (85%) and utilities (88%) show similar levels of concern, though slightly fewer respondents say they are very concerned about these two.

QUESTION #3 | POLITICAL SELF-EFFICACY
How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?

How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements?
	Strongly disagree	Somewhat disagree	Neither agree nor disagree	Somewhat agree	Strongly agree
Sometimes politics and government seem so complicated that a person like me can’t really understand what’s going on	8%	15%	24%	37%	16%
People like me don’t have any say about what the government does	6%	18%	22%	32%	21%
Elected officials don’t care much what people like me think	2%	12%	19%	38%	29%
Voting is the only way that people like me can have any say about how the government runs things	4%	9%	18%	41%	29%

A majority of respondents agree that elected officials don’t care much what people like them think (67%), that people like them don’t have any say about what the government does (53%), and that politics and government are too complicated to understand (53%).

QUESTION #4 | VOTING AS A STATEMENT
When you think about how you will vote for Congress this November, which comes closest to your view?

Bar chart of how people say they will vote for Congress this November. A majority (55%) say their vote will mostly be about candidates and issues in their district, not President Trump. 31% say it will mostly be a statement to oppose President Trump, and 14% say it will mostly be a statement to support him.

When you think about how you will vote for Congress this November, which comes closest to your view?
My vote will mostly be a statement to oppose President Trump	31%
My vote will mostly be a statement to support President Trump	14%
My vote will mostly be about the specific candidates and issues in my district, not about President Trump	55%

A majority of respondents (55%) say their vote will mostly be about the specific candidates and issues in their district rather than a statement about Trump, while 31% say their vote is mostly meant to oppose him and 14% say it’s mostly meant to support him.

QUESTION #5 | ELECTION INFLUENCES
Which of the following, if any, has had the most influence on how you’re thinking about this election? Select up to two.

Horizontal bar chart of what has most influenced how people think about this election (respondents could select up to two). “None of the above” (26%) is highest, followed by friends, family, coworkers, or classmates (25%) and candidates or elected officials (25%). Cable or network news (19%) and political ads (17%) come next. Newspapers or news websites (10%), social media personalities (7%), local leaders (6%), podcasts (5%), and celebrities or athletes (1%) are lowest.

Which of the following, if any, has had the most influence on how you’re thinking about this election? Select up to two.
None of the above	26%
Candidates or elected officials, including their own social media posts	25%
Friends, family, coworkers, or classmates	25%
Cable or network news	19%
Political ads (TV, digital, or mail)	17%
A newspaper or news website	10%
A social media personality or influencer	7%
Local leaders, such as faith, school, or community figures	6%
A podcast or podcast host	5%
Celebrities or athletes	1%

A plurality of respondents (26%) say none of the listed sources have influenced how they’re thinking about this election. One in four women in this audience either could not or did not want to call out a single source on the list as influencing their thinking about the midterms. While this question was multiple selection (up to 2), “none of the above” was exclusive (selecting “none” ruled out every other answer).

Candidates or elected officials (25%) and friends, family, coworkers, or classmates (25%) are the most commonly cited influences, followed by cable or network news (19%) and political ads (17%). Social media personalities, podcasts, and celebrities were named far less often (7% or fewer each). However, self-reported influence likely understates the effect of media (like influencers and podcasts) on political beliefs.

QUESTION #6 | ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
In the past few months, which of the following, if any, have you experienced when looking for information about the election, candidates, or ballot measures? Select all that apply.

In the past few months, which of the following, if any, have you experienced when looking for information about the election, candidates, or ballot measures? Select all that apply.
None of the above	51%
Saw an image, video, or audio related to the election and wondered if it was AI-generated	30%
Read or watched something about the election that I later learned was made by AI	18%
Read an AI-generated summary at the top of search results	13%
Asked an AI chatbot (such as ChatGPT, Gemini, or Claude) a question about candidates, ballot measures, or how to vote	12%
Used an AI feature in a news or social media app, such as a summary or suggested answers	8%

A majority of respondents (51%) say they haven’t experienced any of the listed AI-related encounters when looking for election information. Among those who have, the most common experience is seeing election-related content and wondering if it was AI-generated (30%). Fewer say they’ve knowingly consumed AI content (18%), read an AI summary in search results (13%), or directly asked an AI chatbot a question about the election (12%).

QUESTION #7 | PARTY TRUST
When it comes to each of the following, regardless of who you support, which party do you trust more to stand up for you and your family?

Bar chart of which party people trust more to stand up for them and their family on seven issues. Democrats lead on all but immigration, where Republicans lead slightly (39% to 38%). The largest Democratic lead is on healthcare (45% to 26%). AI has the most “neither” (29%) and “both equally” (19%) responses.

When it comes to each of the following, regardless of who you support, which party do you trust more to stand up for you and your family?
	The Democratic Party	The Republican Party	Both about equally	Neither
Healthcare	45%	26%	13%	16%
The economy	41%	30%	12%	18%
Policies about transgender people	40%	31%	12%	17%
Immigration	38%	39%	9%	14%
Government corruption	37%	27%	13%	23%
Foreign policy	36%	33%	13%	18%
Artificial intelligence (AI)	30%	22%	19%	29%

Respondents trust the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party on six of the seven issues presented, with the largest gaps on healthcare (45% Democrat vs. 26% Republican) and the economy (41% Democrat vs. 30% Republican). Immigration is the one exception, where the two parties are nearly tied but with Republicans slightly in the lead (38% Democrat vs. 39% Republican), consistent with prior findings.

Artificial intelligence stands out for having the highest amount of respondents saying “both about equally” (19%) and “neither” (29%), indicating this is the issue where our audience has the least settled opinion about either party. Government corruption also draws a notably high “neither” response (23%), with a further 13% saying “both about equally.”

QUESTION #8 | TOP ISSUE
Thinking about the election for Congress this November, which ONE of these issues matters most in deciding who gets your vote?

Horizontal bar chart of the one issue that matters most in deciding people’s vote for Congress. The economy leads (41%), well ahead of preserving democracy (14%) and healthcare (13%). Immigration (7%), crime (5%), and all other issues are 4% or lower.

Thinking about the election for Congress this November, which ONE of these issues matters most in deciding who gets your vote?
Economy	41%
Preserving democracy	14%
Healthcare	13%
Immigration	7%
Crime	5%
Abortion	4%
Artificial intelligence/Data centers	4%
Gun violence	3%
Something else	3%
Climate change	2%
Foreign affairs/Focus overseas	2%
Transgender issues	1%

As is consistent with this audience, the economy is the clear top issue (41%), followed at a distance by preserving democracy (14%) and healthcare (13%). No other issue reaches double digits. These results are nearly identical to the September Current Events Survey.

QUESTION #9 | CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?

Bar chart of Congress job approval. Most people disapprove (69%: 35% somewhat, 34% strongly). 18% approve (16% somewhat, 2% strongly), and 12% are not sure.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
Strongly approve	2%
Somewhat approve	16%
Somewhat disapprove	35%
Strongly disapprove	34%
Not sure	12%

The majority of respondents (69%) disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job, and are split about evenly between somewhat (35%) and strongly (34%) disapprove. Only 18% approve, and 12% say they’re not sure.

QUESTION #10 | SOCIAL MEDIA CONTENT
In the past few weeks, how much content about the 2026 election or candidates have you seen on social media?

Bar chart of how much 2026 election content people saw on social media in the past few weeks. Most saw a fair amount (37%) or a great deal (28%). 24% saw only a little, and 12% saw none.

In the past few weeks, how much content about the 2026 election or candidates have you seen on social media?
None at all	12%
Only a little	24%
A fair amount	37%
A great deal	28%

A majority of respondents (65%) say they’ve seen a fair amount or a great deal of content about the 2026 election or candidates on social media in the past few weeks, while just 12% say they’ve seen none at all. This indicates that the vast majority of our audience had at least “a little” exposure (if not more) to election-related content online as the midterms approached.