Research

Tracking Survey: Wave Three

September 5, 2024

Galvanize Action embedded a multi-wave tracking survey in an in-field randomized controlled trial to gauge the effectiveness of our programming. Multiple waves of surveys will be given to the same group of white women across ten states: WI, PA, OH, MI, ME, NE, AZ, NV, MT, and FL. (See previous memos for June (Baseline) and July (Wave Two) survey results.) Some of the questions we ask the women will be the same in each survey so we can watch changes over time. Other questions will be different from wave to wave to capture insights into important current events and pivotal moments in this year’s civic and political landscape. The questions in this survey were the same as those asked in June.

The first and final of these waves work as a randomized controlled trial, allowing us to measure the effect of our digital ad program in the real world.

Half of the women will be in the treatment group: they will see Galvanize Action ads.
Half of the women will be in the control group: they will be blocked from seeing Galvanize Action ads.

A majority (79%) of the respondents in this month’s survey are in our audience of ideologically-moderate women. Results were analyzed with particular attention to this group of women.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #1
Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the 2024 election for president?

Economy
Abortion
Crime
Healthcare
Climate Change
Racial Inequality
LGBTQ Rights
Immigration
Preserving Democracy
Gun Violence
Foreign Policy/Foreign Aid/Focus Overseas
Something else

All respondents (n= 8,125)

Abortion	10%	Healthcare	7%
Climate Change	4%	Immigration	14%
Crime	2%	LGBTQ Rights	1%
Economy	34%	Preserving Democracy	19%
Foreign Policy/Aid	2%	Racial Inequality	<1%
Gun Violence	3%	Something else	4%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Looking only at responses from ideologically-moderate white women (n=6,398), they continue to select the economy as their top vote choice issue.
- 35% selected economy
- 19% selected preserving democracy
- 14% selected immigration
- 10% selected abortion
To compare, economy was selected by 37% of conservative white women and 29% of liberal white women; preserving democracy was selected by 17% of conservative white women and 21% of liberal white women; immigration was selected by 20% of conservative white women and 8% of liberal white women; and abortion was selected by 7% of conservative white women and 15% of liberal white women.

Moderate white women that participated in both the June and August surveys (n = 5,538)

	June 10 Responses	August 5 Responses
Economy	32%	34%
Preserving Democracy	19%	20%
Immigration	16%	15%
Abortion	10%	10%

KEY OPINION QUESTION #2
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? I would only vote for a presidential candidate who will take action to protect abortion for everyone.

Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree

All respondents (n= 8,125)

Strongly agree	29%
Somewhat agree	18%
Neither agree nor disagree	24%
Somewhat disagree	10%
Strongly disagree	19%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Nearly half (47%) of moderate white women said they would only vote for a presidential candidate who will take action to protect abortion for everyone.
- 29% strongly agree
- 18% somewhat agree
- 24% neither agree nor disagree
- 9% somewhat disagree
- 20% strongly disagree
Looking at responses across ideology, compared to the 47% of moderate white women who agreed, 56% of liberal white women and 33% of conservative white women said they would only vote for a presidential candidate who will take action to protect abortion for everyone.

Moderate white women that participated in both the June and August surveys (n = 5,538)

	June 10 Responses	August 5 Responses
Strongly agree	28%	30%
Somewhat agree	19%	18%
Neither agree nor disagree	26%	23%
Somewhat disagree	9%	9%
Strongly disagree	19%	20%

KEY OPINION QUESTION #3
Do you think abortions should always be legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal, or always illegal?

Always legal
Mostly legal
Mostly illegal
Always illegal

All respondents (n= 8,125)

Always legal	32%
Mostly legal	36%
Mostly illegal	26%
Always illegal	6%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

A majority (69%) of moderate white women believe that abortion should be mostly or always legal.
- 33% always legal
- 36% mostly legal
- 25% mostly illegal
- 6% always illegal
Compared to the 69% of moderate white women who believe that abortion should be mostly or always legal, 80% of liberal white women and 53% of conservative white women believe abortion should be mostly or always legal.
We did not see a notable change between the June and August responses of moderate white women who participated in both surveys.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #4
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: I trust that our current democratic model is the best system to safeguard all of our freedoms.

Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree

All respondents (n= 8,125)

Strongly disagree	19%
Somewhat disagree	17%
Neither agree nor disagree	19%
Somewhat agree	24%
Strongly agree	21%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Nearly half (46%) of moderate white women said our current democratic model is the best system to safeguard all of our freedoms. 36% disagree with that statement to some extent.
- 19% strongly disagree
- 17% somewhat disagree
- 19% neither agree nor disagree
- 24% somewhat agree
- 22% strongly agree
Looking at responses across ideology, we see that a slightly higher percentage of moderate white women (46%) said they agree than both conservative (39%) and liberal white women (44%).
We did not see a notable change between the June and August responses of moderate white women who participated in both surveys.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #5
To what extent do you believe the Biden/Harris Administration is to blame for inflation?

To a great extent
Somewhat
Very little
Not at all

All respondents (n= 8,125)

To a great extent	41%
Somewhat	16%
Very little	22%
Not at all	21%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

A majority (57%) of moderate white women blame the Biden/Harris administration for inflation somewhat or to a great extent.
- 41% say they blame the current administration to a great extent.
- 16% say they somewhat blame the current administration.
- 22% say they blame the Biden/Harris administration very little.
- 20% say they do not blame the current administration at all.
Comparatively, 68% of conservative white women and 46% of liberal white women blame the Biden/Harris administration somewhat or to a great extent.
When we asked this question in our June survey (fielded June 10, 2024, when President Biden was the Democratic candidate), the wording was “Biden Administration” vs. the current survey that asked about the “Biden/Harris Administration.”

Moderate white women that participated in both the June and August surveys (n = 5,538)

	June 10 Responses (Democratic candidate = Biden)	August 5 Responses (Democratic candidate = Harris)
To a great extent	42%	41%
Somewhat	18%	16%
Very little	22%	22%
Not at all	18%	21%

KEY OPINION QUESTION #6
Which party is better for the economy?

The Republican party is much better
The Republican party is somewhat better
Neither party is better
The Democratic party is somewhat better
The Democratic party is much better

All respondents (n= 8,125)

Republican party is much better	32%
Republican party is somewhat better	14%
Neither party is better	22%
Democratic party is somewhat better	13%
Democratic party is much better	20%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

46% of moderate white women believe Republicans are better for the economy; 33% believe Democrats are better.
- 32% say the Republican party is much better
- 14% say the Republican party is somewhat better
- 21% say neither party is better
- 13% the Democratic party is somewhat better
- 20% say the Democratic party is much better
Compared to the 46% of moderate white women who believe Republicans are better for the economy, a majority of conservative white women (60%) share that belief. Only 29% of liberal white women, however, said they believe Republicans are better for the economy.

Moderate white women that participated in both the June and August surveys (n = 5,538)

	June 10 Responses	August 5 Responses
Republican party is much better	30%	33%
Republican party is somewhat better	14%	13%
Neither party is better	26%	20%
Democratic party is somewhat better	13%	13%
Democratic party is much better	17%	21%

KEY OPINION QUESTION #7
In recent years, there have been discussions about what is appropriate to teach or talk about in public schools. To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Discussion of sexual orientation and/or gender identity in public schools should be banned.

Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree

All respondents (n= 8,125)

Strongly agree	28%
Somewhat agree	16%
Neither agree nor disagree	14%
Somewhat disagree	16%
Strongly disagree	25%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

44% of moderate white women agree that discussion of sexual orientation and/or gender identity in public schools should be banned.
- 28% strongly agree
- 16% somewhat agree
- 14% neither agree nor disagree
- 16% somewhat disagree
- 25% strongly disagree
Looking at responses across ideology, a majority of conservative white women (59%) somewhat or strongly agree that discussion of sexual orientation and/or gender identity in public schools should be banned, while only 31% of liberal white women feel that way.
We did not see a notable change between the June and August responses of moderate white women who participated in both surveys.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #8
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: People advocating for the rights of transgender people have gone too far in recent years.

Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree

All respondents (n= 8,125)

Strongly agree	33%
Somewhat agree	20%
Neither agree nor disagree	14%
Somewhat disagree	12%
Strongly disagree	21%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Looking at responses from moderate white women, a slight majority (53%) either somewhat or strongly agree that people advocating for the rights of transgender people have gone too far in recent years.
- 33% strongly agree
- 20% somewhat agree
- 15% neither agree nor disagree
- 12% somewhat disagree
- 21% strongly disagree
Comparatively, 71% of conservative white women and 38% of liberal white women somewhat or strongly agree.
We did not see a notable change between the June and August responses of moderate white women who participated in both surveys.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #9
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

The Democrat
The Republican
Another candidate
Don’t know
Not going to vote

All respondents (n= 8,125)

The Democrat	43%
The Republican	43%
Another candidate	5%
Don’t know	8%
Not going to vote	2%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Looking only at responses from ideologically-moderate white women (n=6,398), Trump and Harris are neck and neck.
- 43% the Democrat
- 44% the Republican
- 4% another candidate
- 8% don’t know
- 2% not going to vote
For comparison, among conservative white women, 57% say they would vote for the Republican and 29% say they would vote for the Democrat; among liberal white women, 26% say they would vote for the Republican and 55% say they would vote for the Democrat.
When we asked this question in our June survey (fielded June 10, 2024, President Biden was the Democratic candidate).

Moderate white women that participated in both the June and August surveys (n = 5,538)

	June 10 Responses (Democratic candidate = Biden)	August 5 Responses(Democratic candidate = Harris)
The Democrat	40%	43%
The Republican	42%	44%
Another candidate	6%	4%
Don’t know	10%	7%
Not going to vote	2%	2%

KEY OPINION QUESTION #10
If the 2024 Senate election were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

The Democrat
The Republican
Another candidate
Don’t know
Not going to vote

All respondents (n= 8,125)

The Democrat	42%
The Republican	42%
Another candidate	3%
Don’t know	11%
Not going to vote	2%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Looking only at responses from ideologically-moderate white women (n=6,398), Senate Republicans and Democrats are also neck and neck.
- 42% the Democrat
- 43% the Republican
- 3% another candidate
- 11% don’t know
- 2% not going to vote
For comparison, among conservative white women, 56% say they would vote for the Republican and 27% say they would vote for the Democrat; among liberal white women, 26% say they would vote for the Republican and 56% say they would vote for the Democrat.
We did not see a notable change between the June and August responses of moderate white women who participated in both surveys.