Research

Tracking Survey Wave Two

August 15, 2024

Galvanize Action embedded a multi-wave tracking survey in an in-field randomized controlled trial to gauge the effectiveness of our programming. Multiple waves of surveys will be given to the same group of white women across ten states: WI, PA, OH, MI, ME, NE, AZ, NV, MT, and FL. (See June survey results here.) Some of the questions we ask the women will be the same in each survey so we can watch changes over time. Other questions will be different from wave to wave to capture insights into important current events and pivotal moments in this year’s civic and political landscape. A notable event occurred since the last survey: President Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as a presidential candidate the day before this survey was fielded.

The first and final of these waves work as a randomized controlled trial, allowing us to measure the effect of our digital ad program in the real world.

Half of the women will be in the treatment group: they will see Galvanize Action ads.
Half of the women will be in the control group: they will be blocked from seeing Galvanize Action ads.

A majority (78%) of the respondents in this month’s survey are in our audience of ideologically-moderate women. Results were analyzed with particular attention to this group of women.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #1
Which of the following best describes your opinion?

I am very decided on who to vote for in the 2024 presidential election
I am somewhat decided on who to vote for in the 2024 presidential election
I am somewhat undecided on who to vote for in the 2024 presidential election
I am very undecided on who to vote for in the 2024 presidential election

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)	Control Group (n = 4,135)
Very decided	69%	70%
Somewhat decided	16%	17%
Somewhat undecided	8%	6%
Very undecided	7%	7%

KEY OPINION QUESTIONS #2-3
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the DEMOCRATIC candidate for president of the United States?

Very unfavorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Neither
Somewhat favorable
Very favorable

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the REPUBLICAN candidate for president of the United States?

Very unfavorable
Somewhat unfavorable
Neither
Somewhat favorable
Very favorable

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)		Control Group (n = 4,135)
	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
Very unfavorable	38%	44%	38%	43%
Somewhat unfavorable	10%	8%	9%	8%
Neither	11%	8%	12%	8%
Somewhat favorable	14%	14%	15%	14%
Very favorable	26%	26%	26%	27%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Looking only at responses from ideologically-moderate white women, 69% say they are very decided and 31% say they have not yet committed to a decision about who to vote for in the upcoming presidential election.
- 69% are very decided.
- 16% are somewhat decided.
- 8% are somewhat undecided.
- 7% are very undecided.
Of the moderate white women who have not yet committed to a decision, more have a very unfavorable opinion of the Republican candidate (40%) than of the Democratic candidate (23%).

Vote Status and Candidate Favorability: Ideologically-Moderate White Women

	Very Decided (n = 4,810)		Not Yet Committed (n = 1,666)
	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
Very unfavorable	45%	40%	23%	40%
Somewhat unfavorable	6%	3%	20%	19%
Neither	4%	2%	30%	20%
Somewhat favorable	10%	13%	21%	18%
Very favorable	36%	36%	6%	3%

KEY OPINION QUESTION #4
Which of the following best describes your view?

I strongly trust Democrats when it comes to abortion in the US
I somewhat trust Democrats when it comes to abortion in the US
I somewhat trust Republicans when it comes to abortion in the US
I strongly trust Republicans when it comes to abortion in the US

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)	Control Group (n = 4,135)
Strongly trust Republicans	29%	29%
Somewhat trust Republicans	25%	25%
Somewhat trust Democrats	27%	26%
Strongly trust Democrats	19%	20%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

A slight majority of moderate white women trust Democrats as opposed to Republicans when it comes to abortion in the US.
- 56% of moderate white women trust Democrats on the issue.
- 44% of moderate white women trust Republicans on the issue.
Comparatively, the majority of conservative white women trust Republicans on abortion (62%) and the majority of liberal white women trust Democrats on abortion (70%).

KEY OPINION QUESTION #5
Which of the following best describes your view?

The election of the DEMOCRATIC candidate to the White House STRONGLY poses a threat to American democracy
The election of the DEMOCRATIC candidate to the White House SOMEWHAT poses a threat to American democracy
Neither candidate poses a threat to American democracy
Both candidates pose a threat to American democracy
The election of the REPUBLICAN candidate to the White House SOMEWHAT poses a threat to American democracy
The election of the REPUBLICAN candidate to the White House STRONGLY poses a threat to American democracy

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)	Control Group (n = 4,135)
Democratic candidate strongly poses a threat	29%	29%
Democratic candidate somewhat poses a threat	8%	7%
Neither candidate poses a threat	9%	9%
Both candidates pose a threat	13%	12%
Republican candidate somewhat poses a threat	5%	5%
Republican candidate strongly poses a threat	37%	38%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

More moderate white women believe the Republican candidate poses a threat to American democracy than believe the Democratic candidate does.
- 43% believe that the Republican candidate poses a threat to democracy.
  - 38% strong threat
  - 5% somewhat threat
- 36% believe that the Democratic candidate poses a threat to democracy.
  - 29% strong threat
  - 7% somewhat threat
- 12% believe that neither candidate poses a threat to democracy.
- 9% believe that both candidates pose a threat to democracy.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #6
Which of the following best describes your view?

I strongly trust Democrats when it comes to healthcare in the United States
I somewhat trust Democrats when it comes to healthcare in the United States
I somewhat trust Republicans when it comes to healthcare in the United States
I strongly trust Republicans when it comes to healthcare in the United States

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)	Control Group (n = 4,135)
Strongly trust Republicans	20%	20%
Somewhat trust Republicans	27%	28%
Somewhat trust Democrats	27%	27%
Strongly trust Democrats	25%	25%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

A slight majority (52%) of moderate white women trust Democrats on healthcare
- 25% say they strongly trust Democrats.
- 27% say they somewhat trust Democrats.
Comparatively, 47% of moderate white women trust Republicans on healthcare
- 20% say they strongly trust Republicans.
- 27% say they somewhat trust Republicans.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #7
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Immigrants make America better for everyone.

Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)	Control Group (n = 4,135)
Strongly disagree	18%	18%
Somewhat disagree	17%	17%
Neither	27%	27%
Somewhat agree	20%	21%
Strongly agree	17%	17%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Moderate women are slightly more likely to agree than disagree, and a notable percentage responded neutrally.
- 38% of moderate women strongly or somewhat agree that immigrants make America better for everyone.
- 35% of moderate women strongly or somewhat disagree that immigrants make America better for everyone.
- 27% of moderate women say they neither agree nor disagree that immigrants make America better for everyone.
Comparatively, conservative white women are more likely to disagree (46%) and liberal white women are more likely to agree (47%) that immigrants make America better for everyone.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #8
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Even if I wouldn’t personally benefit, I would be willing to increase taxes if the money goes to federally-funded childcare.

Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)	Control Group (n = 4,135)
Strongly disagree	23%	24%
Somewhat disagree	19%	19%
Neither	26%	26%
Somewhat agree	21%	19%
Strongly agree	11%	12%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

More moderate women say they disagree than say they agree with the statement “Even if I wouldn’t personally benefit, I would be willing to increase taxes if the money goes to federally-funded childcare.” However, a quarter of this audience say they neither agree nor disagree.
- 43% of moderate women say they disagree to some extent.
- 32% say they agree to some extent.
- 25% of moderate women say they neither agree nor disagree with the statement.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #9
The government has gone too far in helping minorities (such as people of color, “woke” special interests, LGBTQ+) to the disadvantage of people like me.

Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)	Control Group (n = 4,135)
Strongly disagree	23%	24%
Somewhat disagree	12%	12%
Neither	21%	21%
Somewhat agree	19%	18%
Strongly agree	26%	24%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

More moderate white women agree than disagree that the government has gone too far in helping minorities, and nearly a quarter neither agree nor disagree.
- 44% of moderate white women say they agree to some extent that the government has gone too far in helping minorities.
- 35% say they disagree to some extent.
- 22% of moderate white women say they neither agree nor disagree with the statement.
Comparatively, a majority of conservative white women agree to some extent (57%), but only 30% of liberal white women agree to some extent.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #10
Which of the following best describes your view?

I strongly trust Democrats when it comes to crime in the United States
I somewhat trust Democrats when it comes to crime in the United States
I somewhat trust Republicans when it comes to crime in the United States
I strongly trust Republicans when it comes to crime in the United States

	Treatment Group (n = 4,135)	Control Group (n = 4,135)
Strongly trust Republicans	29%	29%
Somewhat trust Republicans	25%	25%
Somewhat trust Democrats	26%	27%
Strongly trust Democrats	20%	19%

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS FOR MODERATE WOMEN

Slightly more moderate white women say they trust Republicans (54%) than say they trust Democrats (46%) on crime.
Comparatively, a larger majority of conservative white women trust Republicans on crime (71%) and the majority of liberal white women trust Democrats on crime (63%).