Where’s Your “Red Line”?
As a reminder, Galvanize Action conducted a baseline survey to see how moderate white women were feeling about key issues in January, just before the second inauguration of President Donald Trump. In March, we asked a different group of women the same questions to see how answers shifted. Let’s take a look at the second round of survey data!
PREDICTIONS
“Thinking about the next four years under the upcoming Trump Administration, how likely do you believe the following scenarios are to happen?”
We asked women if they think scenarios like a national abortion ban or unlawful deportations are likely to occur under the current administration. In the January survey, many women were unsure about these questions. By March, after watching current events unfold, opinions had crystallized and significantly fewer women said they were unsure about what might happen. Take a look at how answers shifted from “unsure” to “likely” in these particularly salient examples:
| Prediction | Month | Unlikely | Unsure | Likely |
| [Documented] immigrants will be deported | January | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| March | 19% | 18% | 63% | |
| Dept. of Education will be shut down | January | 39% | 36% | 25% |
| March | 19% | 24% | 57% |
We saw stark differences in responses based on 2024 vote choice, with Harris voters generally anticipating the worst and Trump voters feeling a little more optimistic. Interestingly, predictions related to the economy and cost of living were highly correlated with vote choice. For example, 67% of Harris voters and just 10% of Trump voters think it is extremely unlikely that the cost of living will decrease.
⚡Just for fun: when we asked our blog readers a similar question, 62% of you said it is unlikely that the cost of living will decrease.
WHERE IS YOUR RED LINE?
In addition to asking women what they think is likely to happen, this time Galvanize Action also asked women about “red line” actions to determine what degree of authoritarian conduct they are willing to tolerate.
Only three items on this list would cross a line for a majority of moderate women in this sample:
“Whether or not you think they will actually happen, which of the following actions would you consider a “red line” if the federal government did them? In other words, if the government did these things, you would feel the need to speak out, protest, refuse to follow the law, or take other actions against them? Please select all that apply.”
| Action | Percentage |
| Uses the justice system to jail political opponents without proof they did anything wrong | 54% |
| Refuses to abide by lawful court orders and takes unconstitutional actions | 52% |
| Passes a law taking away custody rights from transgender, lesbian, and gay parents and forcing their children to be taken from them | 51% |
| Passes a law that forces people to report anyone who isn’t a citizen to the government | 44% |
| Takes away citizenship from children born in the U.S. to immigrant parents who came here illegally | 43% |
| Uses federal agencies to stop media outlets from criticizing elected officials | 41% |
| I would not risk my safety or the safety of my loved ones to oppose any of these actions | 20% |
| I would oppose an action not on this list | 11% |
| I would not oppose any of these actions | 4% |
However, the differences by vote choice are stark. A majority of Harris voters agreed that all of these actions cross a “red line.” None of these items cross a “red line” for a majority of Trump voters, nonvoters, or third-party voters.
That is a very worrisome gap in agreement about some of our most important rights as Americans. This highlights the importance of strengthening democracy through civic participation, one of Galvanize Action’s key goals for the next few years. Active participation is the backbone of a healthy democracy. Our interventions will empower moderate women to deepen their commitment to democratic norms and ideas, and encourage active participation in voting, discourse, and actions that defend our democracy. In our ideal world, 100% of women would speak out against the actions in that table above!
⚡Read more about democracy vs authoritarianism and what we can all do to support a healthy democracy.
