Research

Potential Democratic Candidates Survey

August 30, 2024

In a survey launched ten days before President Joe Biden announced that he was stepping out of the race, Galvanize Action asked a national sample of ideologically moderate white women a series of approximately twenty questions including their opinions on both political parties and who they would vote for in the presidential election if the major party candidates were Donald Trump and: Joe Biden (the scenario at the time of the survey), or one of five other potential Democratic candidates (Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg). This point-in-time “pulse check” survey was conducted to better understand our audience’s opinions on key issues and current events.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #1
If [JOE BIDEN, DONALD TRUMP, KAMALA HARRIS, GRETCHEN WHITMER, GAVIN NEWSOM, PETE BUTTIGIEG, JOSH SHAPIRO], the Democrat, and Donald Trump, the Republican, are the major party candidates in the 2024 presidential election, who would you vote for?

[JOE BIDEN, DONALD TRUMP, KAMALA HARRIS, GRETCHEN WHITMER, GAVIN NEWSOM, PETE BUTTIGIEG, JOSH SHAPIRO]
Donald Trump
Another candidate
Not sure
Would not vote

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS

Of the top potential Democratic candidates, Kamala Harris performed the best against Donald Trump with our audience. In the following potential scenarios:
- 39% chose Harris; 42% chose Trump
- 36% chose Biden; 42% chose Trump
- 33% chose Whitmer; 42% chose Trump
- 31% chose Buttigieg; 42% chose Trump
- 30% chose Newsome; 43% chose Trump
- 29% chose Shaprio; 42% chose Trump
In all of the scenarios, more moderate women chose Donald Trump than the Democratic candidate.
- Notably, the difference between Harris and Trump is within the margin of error, meaning Harris is within striking distance of Trump with moderate white women.

KEY OPINION QUESTION #2
What is your overall opinion of [JOE BIDEN, DONALD TRUMP, KAMALA HARRIS, GRETCHEN WHITMER, GAVIN NEWSOM, PETE BUTTIGIEG, JOSH SHAPIRO]?

Very favorable
Mostly favorable
Mostly unfavorable
Very unfavorable
Never heard of this person

If Kamala Harris were to become the Democratic presidential candidate, which of the following are you most concerned about?

She is unqualified
She was only chosen as VP based on her race
She was only chosen as VP based on her gender
She is untrustworthy
She is aggressive
Not concerned
Concerned about something else

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS

44% of moderate white women view Harris favorably, compared to 45% for Trump and 39% for Biden.
Their top concern (27.7%) was that she is “unqualified” but nearly the same number (27.1%) said they were “not concerned” about her as a potential candidate. 16% said she is “untrustworthy.”

	Very Favorable	Mostly Favorable	Mostly Unfavorable	Very Unfavorable	Never heard of this person
Trump	22.3%	22.8%	12.2%	42.3%	0.2%
Harris	16.1%	28.3%	17.8%	36.0%	1.9%
Biden	13.5%	25.6%	20.5%	40.4%	0%
Whitmer	9.5%	25.4%	19.1%	7.8%	38.2%
Buttigieg	11.7%	22.8%	17.6%	9.5%	38.4%
Newsom	9.3%	23.0%	20.8%	13.4%	33.5%
Shapiro	5.4%	24.0%	16.9%	7.5%	46.2%

KEY OPINION QUESTIONS #3 & #4
Which of the following words describe how you’re feeling about the current Republican candidate for president – Donald Trump? Please select all that apply.

Which of the following words describe how you would feel if the current Democratic candidate for president, Joe Biden, stepped down from the race and Kamala Harris replaced him? Please select all that apply.

Happy
Excited
Nervous
Angry
Sad
Proud
Hopeless
Disgusted
Indifferent
Something else

TOPLINE TAKEAWAYS

Looking at the percent of respondents that selected each word when asked about Donald Trump, the top three words expressed negative feelings, with “disgusted” as the most selected response.
- 44% of moderate white women felt “disgusted.”
- 35% felt “nervous.”
- 33% felt “angry.”
- 26% said they felt “excited.”
When asked about the possibility of Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, the top three words again expressed negative feelings, but “nervous” was the most selected response.
- 39% of moderate white women felt “nervous.”
- 24% felt “hopeless.”
- 24% felt “disgusted.”
- 23% said they felt “happy.”