2025 Start of Year Survey Part II
As a follow up to the baseline survey conducted in January, Galvanize Action surveyed a different set of 599 moderate white women to gauge their opinions on key issues and beliefs about the likelihood of potential social, economic, and political scenarios occurring over the next four years.
QUESTION #1 | ABORTION
Do you think abortions should be always legal, mostly legal, mostly illegal, or always illegal?
| Always illegal | Mostly illegal | Mostly legal | Always legal | |
| January | 5% | 23% | 45% | 27% |
| March | 6% | 23% | 42% | 28% |
- None of the responses in March are outside of the margin of error, indicating that moderate women’s opinions on abortion legality are relatively stable.
QUESTION #2 | INTERNATIONAL PROBLEMS
Thinking about the role the U.S. should play in trying to solve international problems, which of the following comes closest to your point of view?
| Leading role | Major role | Minor role | No role | |
| January | 17% | 50% | 28% | 4% |
| March | 20% | 45% | 29% | 6% |
- In March, 45% of respondents indicated the US should play a major role, a decrease from 50% in January. No other changes exceed the margin of error, indicating that moderate women’s opinions on participation in international matters are relatively stable.
QUESTION #3 | RED LINE ACTIONS
Whether or not you think they will actually happen, which of the following actions would you consider a “red line” if the federal government did them? In other words, if the government did these things, you would feel the need to speak out, protest, refuse to follow the law, or take other actions against them? Please select all that apply.
| Action | Percentage |
| Allows the military to use deadly force against peaceful protesters | 58% |
| Uses the justice system to jail political opponents without proof they did anything wrong | 54% |
| Refuses to abide by lawful court orders and takes unconstitutional actions | 52% |
| Passes a law taking away custody rights from transgender, lesbian, and gay parents and forcing their children to be taken from them | 51% |
| Passes a law that forces people to report anyone who isn’t a citizen to the government | 44% |
| Takes away citizenship from children born in the U.S. to immigrant parents who came here illegally | 43% |
| Uses federal agencies to stop media outlets from criticizing elected officials | 41% |
| I would not risk my safety or the safety of my loved ones to oppose any of these actions | 20% |
| I would oppose an action not on this list | 11% |
| I would not oppose any of these actions | 4% |
Below is the same question as above, this time segmented by 2024 vote choice.
| Action | Harris | Trump | Other/ Didn’t Vote |
| Uses the justice system to jail political opponents without proof they did anything wrong | 65% | 46% | 49% |
| Passes a law taking away custody rights from transgender, lesbian, and gay parents and forcing their children to be taken from them | 71% | 34% | 47% |
| Uses federal agencies to stop media outlets from criticizing elected officials | 63% | 26% | 28% |
| Takes away citizenship from children born in the U.S. to immigrant parents who came here illegally | 67% | 25% | 33% |
| Passes a law that forces people to report anyone who isn’t a citizen to the government | 60% | 31% | 36% |
| Refuses to abide by lawful court orders and takes unconstitutional actions | 65% | 41% | 47% |
| I would oppose an action not on this list | 13% | 9% | 10% |
| I would not oppose any of these actions | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| I would not risk my safety or the safety of my loved ones to oppose any of these actions | 15% | 21% | 28% |
- For each of these items, a majority of Harris voters agreed the action crosses a “red line.” None of these items cross a “red line” for a majority of Trump voters, nonvoters, or third-party voters.
- Trump and Harris voters were closest in alignment on “Uses the justice system to jail political opponents without proof they did anything wrong” with 65% of Harris voters and 46% of Trump voters agreeing the action would cross a “red line,” a 19 percentage point gap.
- The next-smallest gaps in responses were “Refuses to abide by lawful court orders and takes unconstitutional actions” (24pp difference), and then “Passes a law that forces people to report anyone who isn’t a citizen to the government” (29pp difference).
QUESTION #4 | TOP ISSUE
In your opinion, which of the following issues is the MOST important issue facing the country?
| Top Issue | Percentage |
| Economy | 30% |
| Preserving democracy | 14% |
| Immigration | 11% |
| Healthcare | 9% |
| Climate change | 7% |
| Crime | 7% |
| Gun violence | 5% |
| Abortion | 4% |
| Something else | 3% |
| DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) | 3% |
| Education | 3% |
| Foreign affairs/Focus overseas | 3% |
| LGBT Issues | 1% |
Below is the same question as above, this time segmented by 2024 vote choice.
| Response | Harris | Trump | Other/Didn’t Vote |
| Abortion | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| Climate change | 13% | 3% | 5% |
| Crime | 2% | 10% | 9% |
| DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Economy | 24% | 34% | 34% |
| Education | 2% | 2% | 5% |
| Foreign affairs/Focus overseas | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| Gun violence | 5% | 3% | 9% |
| Healthcare | 6% | 11% | 12% |
| Immigration | 3% | 21% | 7% |
| LGBT Issues | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Preserving democracy | 30% | 4% | 6% |
| Something else | 3% | 3% | 5% |
- Economy was the most-chosen issue overall at 30%. Economy was also the most-chosen issue among Trump voters and among those who did not vote or voted third party at 34% each.
- Preserving democracy was the most-chosen issue among Harris voters at 30%, and the second-most-chosen issue in the overall sample at 14%.
- Abortion was the eighth-most-chosen issue, suggesting it is not a top issue for moderate women at this time.
- Trump voters and Harris voters were most divided on preserving democracy (a 26pp gap) and immigration (an 18pp gap).
- Trump voters and Harris voters were most closely aligned on issues neither group commonly selected as a top issue (abortion, education, LGBTQ+ issues, and something else).
QUESTION #5 | PREDICTIONS
Thinking about the next four years under the upcoming Trump Administration, how likely do you believe the following scenarios are to happen?
| Prediction | Month | Unlikely | Unsure | Likely |
| National ban on abortion | January | 33% | 36% | 31% |
| March | 24% | 32% | 44% | |
| Birthright citizenship will end | January | 34% | 36% | 29% |
| March | 21% | 34% | 45% | |
| Dept. of Education will be shut down | January | 39% | 36% | 25% |
| March | 19% | 24% | 57% | |
| Gov. will enact restrictions to freedom of press | January | 23% | 39% | 38% |
| March | 21% | 32% | 47% | |
| Cost of groceries will decrease | January | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| March | 58% | 19% | 24% | |
| Healthcare costs positively affected | January | 34% | 39% | 27% |
| March | 38% | 28% | 34% | |
| Legal immigrants will be deported | January | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| March | 19% | 18% | 63% | |
| No taxes on tips | January | 26% | 46% | 28% |
| March | 27% | 37% | 36% | |
| U.S. will initiate war with another country | January | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| March | 25% | 31% | 45% |
Below are the same predictions as above, this time segmented by vote choice and with expanded degrees of likelihood.
| Prediction | Vote choice | Extremely unlikely | Somewhat unlikely | Unsure | Somewhat likely | Extremely likely |
| National ban on abortion | Harris | 5% | 7% | 26% | 34% | 27% |
| Trump | 16% | 24% | 32% | 21% | 8% | |
| Birthright citizenship will end | Harris | 9% | 13% | 28% | 24% | 26% |
| Trump | 7% | 14% | 35% | 35% | 9% | |
| Cost of living will decrease | Harris | 67% | 21% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| Trump | 10% | 22% | 27% | 29% | 12% | |
| Dept. of Education will be shut down | Harris | 7% | 8% | 14% | 22% | 49% |
| Trump | 9% | 13% | 31% | 27% | 21% | |
| Gov. will enact restrictions to freedom of press | Harris | 5% | 4% | 18% | 29% | 44% |
| Trump | 15% | 19% | 40% | 18% | 8% | |
| Cost of groceries will decrease | Harris | 60% | 26% | 10% | 2% | 2% |
| Trump | 10% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 14% | |
| Healthcare costs positively affected | Harris | 37% | 18% | 14% | 12% | 20% |
| Trump | 8% | 15% | 39% | 29% | 10% | |
| Legal immigrants will be deported | Harris | 2% | 3% | 15% | 27% | 52% |
| Trump | 16% | 15% | 15% | 27% | 27% | |
| No taxes on tips | Harris | 22% | 15% | 43% | 16% | 4% |
| Trump | 5% | 11% | 29% | 31% | 24% | |
| U.S. will initiate war with another country | Harris | 3% | 6% | 27% | 34% | 30% |
| Trump | 22% | 23% | 30% | 19% | 6% |
- Predictions related to the economy and cost of living were highly correlated with vote choice. For example, 67% of Harris voters and just 10% of Trump voters think it is extremely unlikely that the cost of living will decrease.
- Overall, “Unsure” responses declined between January and March as opinions became more concrete.
- Between January and March many respondents shifted toward thinking it is likely that legal immigrants will be deported. In January, 35% said this was unlikely, 28% were uncertain, and 37% said it was likely. In March, 19% said this was unlikely, 18% were uncertain, and 63% said it was likely.
- Similarly, moderate women shifted toward predicting that the Department of Education will be shut down. In January, 39% said this was unlikely, 36% were uncertain, and 25% said it was likely. In March, 19% said this was unlikely, 24% remained uncertain, and 57% said it was likely.
METHODOLOGY
- Audience: Ideologically Moderate US White Women
- Weighted sample size: 599
- Dates in field: March 21, 2025 to March 24, 2025
