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2021 Research Headlines

Happy New Year from all of us at Galvanize Action! Before we launch fully into our 2022 strategy, we wanted to take a moment to recap the top five learnings from our research over the past year. Throughout 2021, we conducted multiple studies and tested values-based messaging in order to understand what drives moderate women’s political behavior and create programming to support them to resist disinformation, grievance politics, and other efforts to pull them to extremes. Here’s a rundown of what we learned and why it matters.

  1. We took a deep dive into the results of the 2020 election and saw that once again white women—the single largest voting bloc in this country—were a big part of the story. Overall, more white women chose Trump, and by a bigger margin than in 2016. But where we focused our efforts, in Michigan and Wisconsin, white women moved significantly toward Biden. This shift proved critical to a Biden victory. We’re expanding the strategies we used in these states to grow our impact heading into 2022, 2024, and beyond.
Bar graph with header text "Change in vote choice: Trump to Biden, 2016-2020." First column of bar graph shows -2pp white women; 0 pp non-college white women with label "National". Middle column shows +6pp white women, +4pp non-college white women with label "Michigan." Last column shows +3pp white women, +11pp non-college white women with label "Wisconsin".
Source: TargetSmart General Election Base data set, 2021

2. Polarization continues to pose a grave threat to our democracy. One reason we’re so divided is that we are not all working off the same set of facts. With our partners at GQR, we studied how white women are being targeted with disinformation and how it is reaching them so that we can develop strategies to protect against it. We learned that it’s not how much someone uses social media that matters, it’s how many platforms they use. Women who use one or two social media platforms are much more likely to encounter and believe disinformation than those who spend more time online across many platforms.

Disinformation Narratives Women Find Believable
over 50% of those surveyed responded to these narratives as either very or somewhat believable

Bar graph with horizontal bars: border crisis 70% very believable and up to 90% with somewhat believable added to it. Biden age/cognition 69% very believable and up to 85% with somewhat believable added to it. VP Harris unqualified 67% very believable and up to 77% somewhat believable. Critical race theory 52% very believable and up to 77% somewhat believable. Vaccines are not safe 39% very believable and up to 62% somewhat believable. Questioning the 2020 results 39% very believable and up to 53% somewhat believable.

3. A core aspect of our work, including our research, is taking the time to deeply understand our target audience and what drives their vote choice. In 2021, we learned that “kitchen table issues”—the economy, jobs, and healthcare—remain top concerns for moderate white women. COVID, immigration, climate change, and crime also rose to the top for this voting bloc. White women who are persuadable across the issues of COVID, climate, and prescription drug prices highly value responsibility and fairness. Messages that are most successful at moving these voters speak directly to their desire to protect their in-group (especially children) and keep their communities clean and safe. Emphasizing a belief in fairness, that hard work should pay off, and tying a core theme of religious teachings—compassion for the less fortunate—to political applications are effective message frames. Activating women’s patriotism and respect for authority figures are proven effective as well.

4. Galvanize Action developed and field tested over 100 successful persuasion messages last year to inoculate against disinformation and grievance politics. The messages were rooted in neuroscience and designed to meet people at their values.

Values At Play In A Successful Rapid Message Test

Diagram of a message that identifies which aspects of the message connect with a core value. The text of the message is The Delta variant is raging and Pediatric ICUs are filling up. We know that if everyone who can, gets vaccinated and we require masks indoors, we'll have a much better chance of keeping our kids safe. This is no time to play politics. The Government needs to act now to keep our kids in school and safe. The values highlighed in the message are responsibility/fairness, out of control/chaos, in-group care/emotionality, and authority.

White women overall were more likely (+8 point shift) to support vaccine mandates for adults after seeing this message, with an even larger shift among the 35-54 year old age group (+26) and those living in rural areas (+14).

Bar graph with first set of data "35-54 year old white women" 36% placebo, 62% message, +26. Second set of data "Rural white women" 39% placebo, 53% message, +14.
Source: Rapid Message Test Tool, Grow Progress, September 2021

5. A majority (61%) of moderate white women across Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia believe the country is on the wrong track, and their faith in government is eroding. Keeping this large group of voters engaged and supported to resist disinformation and stand up for what they believe in will be critical in the months and years ahead.


Methodology 

This research summary includes findings from: A survey (conducted by GQR) of 1,500 white women registered voters, 300 each from GA, MI, NC, PA, and WI (July 2-11, 2021); Results from Rapid Message Tests run on the Grow Progress platform (September-November, 2021); Results from Audience Understanding Surveys conducted by Grow Progress (October-November, 2021); Analysis of the 2016 and 2020 ANES data (conducted with support from Mindbridge Center); Custom modeling developed with Grow Progress (June-August, 2021); and ElectionBase analysis (conducted with support from Precision Strategies).